By Eric VanMarcke

ISBN-10: 0727731858

ISBN-13: 9780727731852

ISBN-10: 0727734679

ISBN-13: 9780727734679

ISBN-10: 0784405980

ISBN-13: 9780784405987

ISBN-10: 0784406235

ISBN-13: 9780784406236

ISBN-10: 0784406944

ISBN-13: 9780784406946

ISBN-10: 0784407657

ISBN-13: 9780784407653

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ISBN-13: 9780784408155

ISBN-10: 0784408912

ISBN-13: 9780784408919

This record offers the important instruments engineers and selection makers have to higher comprehend applicable hazard procedures and the way these tactics can permit them to strengthen danger aid recommendations and enforce mitigation activities to lessen lifeline losses from destiny earthquakes. as the disruption of lifelines from average risks has an instantaneous effect at the world’s nearby economies and the well-being of its voters, it is very important comprehend typical risks, how they could impression lifelines, and what should be performed to reduce the effect once they take place. those 3 components and the techniques used to behave upon them impact judgements that contain applicable chance tactics. the subject of 'acceptable threat' presents a method of bringing built-in platforms threat reviews for catastrophe explicitly right into a decision-making context. issues comprise technical concerns; probability standards matters; and conversation, management, and laws concerns

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Yet many contractors would have a strong preference for either one or the other in a real situation. This means that the EMV-based decision may not necessarily be the “best” in every sense of the word. Even though alternative C or B is ranked higher, it may not always be the best one. It is possible that the two contractors may not be able to work together. In this case, the element of uncertainty is higher, because two contractors are involved. In some cases a contractor might decide to go alone and might prefer alternative B or alternative A and settle for somewhat less profit.

1-5. In terms of the EMVs, alternatives can be ranked as alternative C, alternative B, and alternative A. Rational Decision Making Under Uncertainty 17 Clearly, alternative C, involving the help of another contractor, and alternative B yield higher EMV than does alternative A and one of them should be the preferred decision. A few comments are, however, in order. First, EMV is a technical term and does not consider human aspects in any real situation. Second, the decision leading to the third alternative may be rational, but that may not be necessarily the one every contractor would want to adopt.

Next, these are input to the model of the system and the output is monitored. Statistical analysis of this output yields measures of its behavior and the probability distribution. In the mean-value first-order second-moment method, the Taylor series expansion of the system performance function is truncated after the first terms. The use of the term “mean-value” signifies that the expansion is about the mean value of the variable. Further, only the first two moments of the variable are needed. This makes the method easy to apply and simplifies the calculations.

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Acceptable Risk Processes: Lifelines and Natural Hazards by Eric VanMarcke


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